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Weather experts around the world are foreseeing a strong El Niño in 2014. In India, these developments are feared to lead to droughts. In the last 14 years, out of the four El Niño years globally, three resulted in Indian droughts. Since the 1980s, all the six droughts faced by India were in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807682
This paper examines the role of simplified heuristics in the formation of preferences for public goods. Political scientists have suggested that voters use simplified heuristics based on the positions of familiar parties to infer how a proposed policy will affect them and to cast a vote in line...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010315585
A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013269247
subjective uncertainty, (2) the incomplete list of imaginable future states, (3) the valuation of "importance" reflecting various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480614
theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480721
We investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another. The question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another, but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011927995
oligopoly characterized by a homogeneous non-storable good, sticky prices and uncertainty. Our model nests the classical dynamic …-time limit of our model with no uncertainty and no risk-aversion. Focusing on the continuous-time limit of the infinite horizon … inversely related to the degrees of uncertainty and risk-aversion. However, the effect of uncertainty and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146421
Poverty involves both low income levels and high income uncertainty. Do both these dimensions of being poor capture … by farmers in Brazil: random payday variation affecting income levels, and rainfall shocks that affect income uncertainty …. We find that it is income uncertainty that systematically has adverse cognitive effects; low income levels affect only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012166458
matching the micro facts, demand dispersion has unambiguously negative effects on output via increased uncertainty and a "wait …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540949
In this paper, we look into the so-called "revolving door of Washington", which is the movement of individuals between federal government positions and jobs in the private sector, and examine its link to long-run stock returns. We find that firms where current public officials become future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440132