Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark …Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in … empirical expectations data instead assuming all agents' expectations are rational This paper takes up the challenge of modeling …

complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than …Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early … 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a …

This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's 'Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield …

prices are characterized in terms of investors' current portfolio holdings as well as their subjective beliefs about future …

To evaluate measures of expectations I examine and compare some of the most common methods for capturing expectations …: the futures method which utilizes financial market prices, the VAR forecast method, and the survey method. I study average … expectations on the Federal funds rate target, and the main findings can be summarized as follows: i) the survey measure and the …

clear illustration of behavioral response to taxes in general, and the impact of expectations of future tax increases in …

for autocorrelated shocks. Although results are mixed, our interpretation favors inertial inflation expectations over … variety of instruments to influence inflation and output, including fiscal policy, bailouts and foreign exchange policy, but …