We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs) of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. An advantage of our procedure is that it allows researchers to select the impulse responses that...

This paper introduces methods for computing impulse response functions that do not require specification and estimation of the unknown dynamic multivariate system itself. The central idea behind these methods is to estimate flexible local projections at each period of interest rather than...

A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semiparametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of...

Poor identification of individual impulse response coefficients does not necessarily mean that an impulse response is imprecisely estimated. This paper introduces a three-pronged approach on how to communicate uncertainty of impulse response estimates: (1) withWald tests of joint significance; (2)...

In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...

In this paper we assess whether the relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy has been stable over time. Using quarterly US data from 1953Q1 to 2018Q2, we estimate Bayesian VAR models which allow for drifting parameters and/or stochastic volatility and conduct formal...

In this paper we analyze how skewness and heavy tails a ect the estimated relationship between the real economy and the corporate bond-yield spread, a popular predictor of real activity. We use quarterly US data to estimate Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility and various...

A long tradition in macro finance studies the joint dynamics of aggregate stock returns and dividends using vector autoregressions (VARs), imposing the cross-equation restrictions implied by the Campbell-Shiller (CS) identity to sharpen inference. We take a Bayesian perspective and develop...

The paper deals with the challenges stemming from the phenomenon of unofficial euroization in the Republic of North Macedonia. It tries to identify the main drivers of the households' deposit euroization in the Republic of North Macedonia and contributes to the literature by providing an...

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final...