In modelling macroeconomic time series, often a monthly indicator of global real economic activity is used. We propose …

In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic … theory. Specifically, he constructed his own concept of subjective uncertainty called potential surprise to replace … probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by Katzner as Kolmogorov-styled measure defined on the &#x1d70e …

probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of preferences constructed to be (strictly) partially ordered by a more … explicit preference families: a maxmin expected utility and smooth ambiguity. Thirdly, we give applications to the comparative …

for further research, especially on the motivations behind investment decisions. Investments in market economies are … generally guided by call-put option pricing models - which rely on an ergodic notion of probability that conforms to a normal … distribution function. This paper considers critiques of the above models, which include Keynes's Treatise on Probability (1921 …

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro … coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness …/his expected utility, given the probabilities of the respective outputs. The focus is on how changes in a person's psychological …

symptoms, mental healthcare utilization, diagnostic uncertainty, and disutility from diagnostic errors. I estimate gender …

comparative performance. SDE circumvents the necessity to posit a specific utility function to describe investor's preferences and …

awareness-dependent subject expected utility and assigns probability zero to some subsets of states that are not necessarily …We develop awareness-dependent subjective expected utility by taking unawareness structures introduced in Heifetz …, Meier, and Schipper (2006, 2008, 2011a) as primitives in the Anscombe-Aumann approach to subjective expected utility. We …