This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

This paper constructs a novel equilibrium in the chopstick auction of Szentes and Rosenthal (Games and Economic Behavior, 2003a, 2003b). In contrast to the existing solution, the identified equilibrium strategy allows a simple and intuitive characterization. Moreover, its best-response set has...

The paper focuses on the option price subdiffusive model under the unusual behavior of the market, when the price may not be changed for some time which is quite a common situation in the modern financial markets or during global crises. In the model, the risk-free bond motion and classical GBM...

A micro decision-making utility model under uncertainty is presented as a complementary foundation for macro coronavirus models. The micro model consists of two functions, a risk averse utility function depending on wellness and a wellness random output which is a function of the input variable...

In a seminal 1972 paper, Robert M. May asked: "Will a Large Complex System Be Stable?" and argued that stability (of a broad class of random linear systems) decreases with increasing complexity, sparking a revolution in our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. Twenty-five years later, May,...

We document four facts about the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic that are relevant for those studying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on COVID-19 transmission. First, across all countries and U.S. states that we study, the growth rates of daily deaths from COVID-19 fell from a...

In the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) 75% of reported meta-analyses contain five or fewer studies. For a small dataset a reasonable goodness-of-fit test on a statistical model cannot be performed since either it requires a large sample size for the validity of asymptotic...

The location-scale model is usually present in physics and chemistry in connection to the Birge ratio method for the adjustment of fundamental physical constants such as the Planck constant or the Newtonian constant of gravitation, while the random effects model is the commonly used approach for...

The analysis and measurement of poverty is a crucial and unsolved issue in the field of social science. This work aims to measure poverty as a multidimensional notion using a new composite indicator. However, subjective choices as different weighting schemes on the indicator's construction could...

In a canonical model of military conflict, victory and defeat depend stochastically on the difference of resources deployed by the conflict parties. The present paper offers a comprehensive analysis of that model. The unique Nash equilibrium reflects either (i) peace, (ii) submission, (iii)...