Developments in international markets in recent years have transformed guar from a low value crop grown on marginal land to one that can generate substantial income for processors, manufacturers, traders and farmers. India's export of guar products, particularly guar gum powder, increased...

Up to the financial slump of the second quarter of 2008 commodity prices grew fast for several consecutive years in a highly volatile context. Recent commodity fluctuations have raised both policy concerns and a prolific academic debate. This paper offers a coherent theoretical and empirical...

We present a Bayesian structural Vector Autoregressive model of the global wheat market to examine the relative importance of supply and demand shocks, which are interpreted as the fundamental driving forces of wheat price. To our knowledge, this is the first SVAR analysis that jointly considers...

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...

The temporal interdependence between saving and output has been in focus in a number of recent empirical studies. Results from these studies have compelled some authors to question the traditional notion of a causal chain where saving leads growth through capital accumulation. This paper...

We apply Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index methodology to monthly industrial production indices to study business cycle interdependence among G-6 industrialized countries since 1958. The business cycle spillover index fluctuates substantially over time, increasing especially after the 1973-75,...