We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

adamant about preventing a rise in inflation? The large fiscal imbalance brings about inflationary pressures, triggering a … spiral of higher inflation, output contraction, and further debt accumulation. A coordinated commitment to inflate away the …

inflation as one component of future real wages. This paper scrutinizes whether countries in CEE that officially announce an … inflation target are tempted to act time-inconsistently and switch from the announced inflation target to an exchange rate … target in order to sustain higher output via surprise inflation. If market participants discover the time-inconsistency, they …

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws … predict that the central bank's preference for output stability is a determinant of inflation persistence. Hence, time … variation of that preference should be reflected in changes in inflation persistence. We estimate an ARMA(1,q) model with a time …

variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are … macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while … inclusion of our spread variables improves predictive accuracy in times of high volatility. …

of this analysis is that the model overestimates output persistence in high inflation countries and underestimates output … persistence in low inflation countries. This has important implications not only for this model, but also for any economist …

idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High …Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and … inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. …