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Oil Wealth and Real Exchange Rates: The FEER for Norway
Akram, Q. Farooq - 2004
It is often argued that Norway's sizeable net foreign assets based on its petroleum wealth imply an appreciation of its real exchange rate to a permanently strong level. We investigate this issue within the framework of the fundamental equilibrium real exchange rate (FEER) approach. It is shown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143630
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Forecasting Inflation with an Uncertain Output Gap
Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Brubakk, Leif; Jore, Anne Sofie - 2006
The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143654
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Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States: Use flow rates, mind the trend
Meyer, Brent; Tasci, Murat - 2015
This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that incorporate unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced-form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310199
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The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate
Tasci, Murat - 2012
This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500228
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Phillips curves and unemployment dynamics: A critique and a holistic perspective
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - 2006
NAIRU. The labour macro literature tries to explain unemployment dynamics and determine the real economic factors that drive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281022
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Capital stock and unemployment: searching for the missing link
Perez-Soba Aguilar, Ines; Marquez de la Cruz, Elena; … - 2006
the determination of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) over the last four decades. The authors … of imports, and aggregate capacity utilization were determinants of the NAIRU during the period. The same evidence also … shows that technical progress and changes in long-term unemployment did not affect the NAIRU. We believe this evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266535
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The Return of the Original Phillips curve? An Assessment of Lars E. O. Svensson's Critique of the Riksbank's Inflation Targeting, 1997-2012
Andersson, Fredrik N. G.; Jonung, Lars - 2015
We assess Lars E O Svensson's prominent critique of the Swedish Riksbank. We reject his two major claims: first that the Riksbank has anchored inflation expectations at the 2 percent inflation target, and second, that the original version of the Phillips curve, based constant inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208696
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The evolution of inflation and unemployment: explaining the roaring nineties
Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Héctor; Snower, Dennis J. - 2007
This paper analyses the relation between US inflation and unemployment from the perspective of "frictional growth," a phenomenon arising from the interplay between growth and frictions. In particular, we examine the interaction between money growth (on the one hand) and various real and nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281030
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Bad jobs and low inflation
Faccini, Renato; Melosi, Leonardo - 2020
We study a model in which firms compete to retain and attract workers searching on the job. A drop in the rate of on-the-job search makes such wage competition less likely, reducing expected labor costs and lowering inflation. This model explains why inflation has remained subdued over the last...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429415
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Predicting Inflation : Does The Quantity Theory Help?
Bachmeier, Lance J.; Swanson, Norman R. - 2003
Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a wide range of forecast horizons and allow for estimated as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263217