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Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500234
crisis. First, how similar is the crisis to previous episodes? We argue that the crisis featured some close similarities to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273680
I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test for the presence of this phenomenon in direct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013467142
. Given their size and integration, growth in EM7 could have significant cross-border spillovers. We provide empirical … estimates of these spillovers using a Bayesian vector auto regression model. We report three main results. First, spillovers …. Second, sizeable as they are, spillovers from EM7 are still smaller than those from G7 countries (Group of Seven of advanced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060228
We apply Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index methodology to monthly industrial production indices to study business cycle interdependence among G-6 industrialized countries since 1958. The business cycle spillover index fluctuates substantially over time, increasing especially after the 1973-75,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277269
of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts … of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output …; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318835
This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282119
threefold purpose. In the first place it gives an overview of financial crisis in Norway from her independence from Denmark in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143786
(s) preceding the breakdown and the crisis. We also find boom-bust cycles as depicted in a basic Minsky-cycle, where financial … instability and the outbreak of crisis is a consequence of an unbalanced mix of hedge, speculative and Ponzi financial positions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143791
This paper investigates the relationship between the main business cycles features and the institutional and structural characteristics of countries in which they are observed. We derive the business cycle characteristics of the individual countries using the nonparametric Harding-Pagan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273647