A growing body of evidence suggests a link between climate and conflict. In contrast, the link between climate and cooperation remains much less investigated, although it has been studied in the context of transboundary river basins. Even for transboundary waters, however, earlier results have...

This paper brings together identification and forecasting in a positive econometric analysis of policy. We contend that a broad range of important policy questions is consistent with the existing policy process and is not subject to Lucas's critique. We analyze the economics of "business as...

The objective of this paper is to identify the impact of public and private agriculturalresearch on multi-output multi-input profit maximizing decisions of Midwestern farmers. The mainhypothesis is that investments in public and private R&D shift outward the supply curves for cropand livestock...

The imprecise Beta model (IBM) of Bernard (1996) and Walley (1996) is the most popular model for learning about a binomial random variable under prior ignorance. Piatti et al. (2005) show that there is a fundamental issue with the interpretation of results produced by the IBM in applications....

Closed-form, trivially evaluated approximations for the density and cumulative distribution function of the doubly noncentral t distribution are developed based on saddlepoint methods. They exhibit remarkable accuracy throughout the entire support of the distribution and are vastly superior to...

The recently proposed class of MixN-GARCH models, which couple a mixed normal distributional structure with linked GARCH-type dynamics, has been shown to offer a plausible decomposition of the contributions to volatility, as well as admirable out-of-sample forecasting performance, for financial...

We consider consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency at any order of a given portfolio with respect to all possible portfolios constructed from a set of assets. We justify block bootstrap approaches to achieve valid inference in a time series setting. The test statistics are computed...

A generalized correlated random walk is a process X_k of partial sums of random variables Y_j such that (X,Y) forms a Markov chain. For a sequence X^n of such processes where each Y^n_j takes only two values, we prove weak convergence to a diffusion process whose generator is explicitly...

We study a test statistic based on the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimator of the copula density and a kernel smoothed estimator of the parametric copula density. We show for fixed smoothing parameters that the test is consistent and that the asymptotic properties are driven...