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We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the U.K., as measured by nominal interest rate rules. We consider generic Taylor-type rules,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293466
Many empirical studies have found that interest rate have a positive effect on the price level. This paper pursues an obvious, but neglected explanation: interest payments are a cost of production that is at least in part passed on to costumers. A model shows that the cost-push effect of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266536
I show how to implement in a simple manner the comparison of alternative monetary policy rules in a two- country model of the new generation. These rules are: Full Price Stability, Taylor, Fixed and Managed Exchange Rates. I find, first, that the exchange rate dynamic is non-stationary unless...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013369971
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143776
We review several methods to define and forecast classical business cycle turning points in Norway. In the paper we compare the Bry - Boschan rule (BB) with a Markov Switching model (MS), using alternative vintages of Norwegian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the business cycle indicator. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143840
We de fine and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143865
In this paper we introduce the general setting of a multivariate time series autoregressive model with stochastic time-varying coefficients and time-varying conditional variance of the error process. This allows modeling VAR dynamics for non-stationary times series and estimation of time varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460774
Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460775
This paper introduces a exible local projection that generalises the model by Jordà (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture non-linearities in the impulse responses. Our first application...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480365
A vast literature has emerged using Taylor rules to analyze monetary policy Although very attractive both theoretically and empirically such rules imply a mechanical response by the policy variable to fundamental ones This study looks for empirical evidence of a more sophisticated monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293458