This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy … performance. We use a unique survey with the feature of including matched policy rate and fixed-horizon inflation expectations at …

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …

results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …

-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …

We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … to individual models' forecasts. Our results point to three important conclusions. First, the forecasting accuracy of the …

from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …