Showing 1 - 10 of 190
Real-time estimates of output gaps and inflation trends differ from the values that are obtained using data available … observations and of already-released observations capable of improving real-time output gap and inflation trend estimates. Our … findings indicate that annual revisions to output and inflation data are in part predictable based on their past vintages. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010286275
This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807665
If firms borrow working capital to finance production, then nominal interest rates have a direct influence on inflation … empirical importance in explaining inflation dynamics in the US and in the euro area. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294872
In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European … well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294894
It is commonly asserted that inflation is a jump variable in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and thus wage …-price inertia does not imply inflation inertia. We show that this "inflation flexibility proposition" is highly misleading, relying … affect inflation, but are also influenced by it) the phenomenon of inflation inertia re-emerges. Under plausible parameter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281028
relationship between inflation and real marginal cost cannot be established empirically for a majority of countries and sectors. We … NKPC for the analysis of inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the Euro Area. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208658
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143624
Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than 20 years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out of sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard-present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292311
The strong response of long-term interest rates to macroeconomic shocks has typically been explained in terms of informational asymmetries between the central bank and private agents. The standard models assume that the equilibrium real interest rate is constant over time and independent of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321563
In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using … data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the … period - although in general at a level below the inflation target - and it does not appear to have been affected much by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013331913