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Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
Survey data indicate that a relatively large share of households is ill-informed about the rate of inflation in the … economy, with perceived and expected rates of inflation deviating substantially from official measures. Using Swedish micro …-level data, we find that such inflation illiteracy is related to respondent characteristics, including income, education and sex. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013331917
We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatilitydynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approachis based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that cantake into account the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009305116
the Riksbank has anchored inflation expectations at the 2 percent inflation target, and second, that the original version … of the Phillips curve, based constant inflation expectations, is appropriate to calculate the unemployment effects of … every year 1997-2011 misleading. We also show that the inflation targeting of the Riksbank 1995-2014 is successful compared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208696
Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions … expected and realized inflation. Our main insight is that US households form their expectations of inflation differently when … and supply shocks can explain a large proportion of expected and realized inflation dynamics during multiple periods of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661559
The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661572
This paper focuses on the formation of inflation expectations of consumers in 9 Central, Eastern and Southeastern … difference between realized inflation and reported inflation expectations is considerably higher in CESEE countries than in 7 … literature on large Western economies: older, female and lower income respondents have relatively higher inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374750
of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143942
Correlations of inflation with the growth rate of money increase when data are averaged over longer time periods …. Correlations of inflation with the growth of money also are higher when high-inflation as well as low-inflation countries are … included in the analysis. We show that serial correlation in the underlying inflation rate ties these two observations together …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292328
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489