This paper uses U.S. credit register data and the 2018-19 Trade War to study the effects of uncertainty on domestic credit supply. Exploiting differences in banks' ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty, we find that increased uncertainty is associated with a broad lending contraction across...

We estimate a time-varying parameter vector autoregression to examine the evolution of international spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in light of increasing globalization in real and financial markets. We find that the adverse international effects of a U.S. tightening have substantially...

The U.S. dollar holds a dominant place in the invoicing of international trade, along two complementary dimensions. First, most U.S. exports and imports invoiced in dollars. Second, trade flows that donot involve the United States are also substantially invoiced in dollars, an aspect that has...

This paper provides a stylized choice-thoretic model to analyze optimal monetary policies among interdependent economies. In response to marcoeconomic shocks, policymakers strike a balance between two objectives. The first is to stabilize marginal costs and markups to offset the distortions...

The paper studies the determinants of unemployment in a two-country model, where real wages are the outcome of the strategic interaction between various institutional players (firms, unions, central banks). We show that: (i) the results derived in the recent literature on this topic are not...

Evaluating the costs and benefits of exchange rate stability requires a somewhat different approach for Mercosur than for the EU. EU member countries are highly integrated in terms of trade in goods and services. By contrast, trade integration within Mercosur is much more limited, intra-area...

In this paper we analyze European business cycles before and under EMU. Across the two periods we find 1) a significant decline in real exchange rate volatility, 2) significant changes in cross-country correlations, and 3) the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals largely unchanged. We...

On the occasion of the 65th birthday of Governor Klaus Liebscher and in recognition of his commitment to Austria's participation in European monetary union and to the cause of European integration, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) established a "Klaus Liebscher Award". It has been...

What are the macroeconomic implications of changes in sovereign risk premia? In this paper, I use a novel identification strategy coupled with a new dataset for the Euro Area to answer this question. I show that exogenous innovations in sovereign risk premia were an important driver of the...

We explore the impact of low and negative monetary policy rates in core world economies on bank lending in four small open economies - Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic and Norway - using confidential bank-level data. Our results show that the impact on lending in these small open economies...