inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a … predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative …

This paper shows that in ation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates … variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to … comovement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at short horizons …

significantly and positively related to their uncertainty about future inflation. And lastly, we demonstrate, by way of a cross … investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat …

significantly and positively related to their uncertainty about future inflation. And lastly, we demonstrate, by way of a cross … investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat …

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international … empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its … potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

pronounced increase of aggregate US producer price inflation. …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … measures in forecasting headline inflation. …