What determines risk-bearing capacity and the amount of leverage in financial markets? Using unique archival data on collateralized lending, we show that personal experience can affect individual risk-taking and aggregate leverage. When an investor syndicate speculating in Amsterdam in 1772 went...

This paper disentangles the complexity of the distress risk premium in stock returns using the risk-neutral measure of credit risk (valued by CDS spread) and investigates the relationship between credit risk and the market , size, value, and momentum effects. Consistent with the argument for a...

Based on 58,256 news articles published in the Financial Times during a 15-year period that cover companies in the DJIA, we find that a trading strategy that longs stocks with the most negative news and shorts stocks with the least negative news is not profitable. Consistent with this result, we...

We present 12 facts about the mortgage crisis. We argue that the facts refute the popular story that the crisis resulted from finance industry insiders deceiving uninformed mortgage borrowers and investors. Instead, we argue that borrowers and investors made decisions that were rational and...

The paper analyzes the intensity of choice in an agent based financial optimization problem. Mean-variance optimizing agents choose among mutual funds of similar styles but varying performance. We specify a model for the allocation of new funds, switching between funds, and withdrawals and...

This paper addresses the discussion between economic power and the power of politics with particular focus on financial markets. After general reflections about the economic basis of power, the paper discusses in a general equilibrium framework how financial innovations can lead to risk creation...

This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes? Second, what is the empirical evidence supporting these...

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic implications of financial imperfections. It focuses on two major channels through which financial imperfections can affect macroeconomic outcomes. The first channel, which operates through the demand side of finance...

We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in theequilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functionsand with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion.We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividendprocess that...