choices matter for output volatility and the medium-term level of inflation. Greater monetary independence is associated with … lower output volatility while greater exchange rate stability implies greater output volatility, which can be mitigated if a … inflation rate. We find that trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility through the investment or trade channel …

preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years. …

preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years. …

an approach to model spot prices that combines mean-reversion, spikes and stochastic volatility. Thereby we use different …

aggregation of GARCH processes of Drost and Nijman (1993). Using Swedish data, our estimation method produces an overall larger …

Did adoption of the gold standard exacerbate or diminish macroeconomic volatility? Supporters thought so, critics … shocks if it ties the hands of policy makers. But any decision to forsake exchange-rate flexibility might compromise shock … the transmission of terms of trade shocks. Evidence on the relationship between real exchange rate volatility and terms of …

Market expectations of future return volatility play a crucial role in finance; so too does our understanding of the … informativeness of volatility forecasts produced by ARCH models versus the volatility forecasts derived from option prices and in … improving volatility forecasts produced by ARCH and option models and combinations of models. Daily and monthly data are …

This paper offers empirical evidence that real exchange rate volatility can have a signi.cant impact on the long … with relatively low levels of financial development, exchange rate volatility generally reduces growth, whereas for … rate volatility, and outliers. We also offer a simple monetary growth model in which real exchange rate uncertainty …

business cycle. Second, a shock that moves the land price is capable of generating large volatility in unemployment. Our … estimation indicates that a 10 percent drop in the land price leads to a 0.34 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate …