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Recent theoretical research suggest that monetary shocks might play an important role in explaining movements in the real exchange rate in the short and medium run. Empirically, the contribution of transitory (monetary) disturbances in explaining the variance decomposition of real exchange rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208427
For a small open economy with fixed exchange rate regime, the twin deficit hypothesis is always an interesting and relevant research topic. The aim of this research is to evaluate the effects of the government budget shocks on the current account movement in the case of the Macedonian economy,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785359
Existing studies generally reject purchasing power parity (PPP) on datasets from countries that have been affected by large real shocks, including Norway. However, we offer strong evidence of PPP between Norway and its trading partners during the post-Bretton Woods period, in which the Norwegian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143592
We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321604
Employing propensity score reweighting and event-based strategies, we provide evidence that sustained real exchange rate (RER) misalignments have significant effects on economic development: positive on GDP per capita and capital stock in the case of undervaluation, and negative on the capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013467125
This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882743
This paper investigates the nonlinearity in the effects of news shocks about technological innovations. In a maximally flexible logistic smooth transition vector autoregressive model, state-dependent effects of news shocks are identified based on medium-run restrictions. We propose a novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271926
Long-run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take the stage in accounting for this slowdown: demand-side and supply-side. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends, identified using sign...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661579
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460619
the UK versus the Euro Area which are compared versus the US as a benchmark. An important role for symmetric shocks with … the Euro Area in explaining UK output fluctuations is found. However, the relative importance of asymmetric shocks, being … was stronger in the UK than the Euro Area. We also confirm existing evidence of the exchange rate being an important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370053