The U.S. economy has experienced a significant drop in the fraction of the population employed in middle wage, "routine task-intensive" occupations. Applying machine learning techniques, we identify characteristics of those who used to be employed in such occupations and show they are now less...

This paper analyzes the relationship between functional income distribution aggregate demand and economic growth in five Central American countries; Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama for the period 1970-2016. It estimates the effects of a change in the wage share on...

This paper uses a novel empirical strategy to present empirical estimates of the effect of an exogenous shock to distribution on demand and accumulation for the US economy from 1973 to 2018. We use recursive vector autoregressions to identify the impact of shocks to the wage share. We impose...

The number of employees historically filed and registered from January to April 2020 for short-time compensation is used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to...

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log...

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts of yearly GDP growth in a crisis period like the Covid19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include...

Three current account imbalances - one very large deficit (the United States) and two surpluses (Japan and the Euro area) - are subjected to a minimalist structural interpretation. Though simple, this interpretation enables us to assess how much of each of the imbalances require a real exchange...

In several publications, starting more than a decade ago, Peter Flaschel and co-authors have outlined the features of a 'social capitalism' as a normative alternative to the liberal and financialised capitalism of the Anglo-Saxon type, but also to the undemocratic Chinese-type of state...

The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of US employers, and we develop novel survey...