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Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs
Berger, Helge; Österholm, Pär - 2007
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321554
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The coming US interest rate tightening cycle: Smooth sailing or stormy waters?
Arteta, Carlos Ó.; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2015
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to start raising policy interest rates in the near term and thus commence a tightening cycle for the first time in nearly a decade. The taper tantrum episode of May-June 2013 is a reminder that even a long anticipated change in Fed policies can trigger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011440126
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European stabilization policy after the Covid-19 pandemic: More flexible integration or more federalism?
Andersson, Fredrik N. G.; Jonung, Lars - 2022
Crises are a major driving force behind cooperation in the European Union. This holds also for monetary and fiscal … policy. During severe crises, cooperation has been enlarged and intensified. The recent covid-19 pandemic is a clear example … crises as a driver of political change is analysed. Next, we examine in greater detail, the effect of crises on the design of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014318974
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Joint Prediction Bands for Macroeconomic Risk Management
Akram, Q. Farooq; Binning, Andrew; Maih, Junior - 2016
. An additional novelty of this paper is our use of a regime-switching DSGE model with an occasionally binding zero lower …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143885
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The redistributive effects of monetary policy
Ledoit, Olivier - 2011
We introduce a model of the economy as a social network. Two agents are linked to the extent that they transact with each other. This generates well-defined topological notions of location, neighborhood and closeness. We investigate the implications of our model for monetary economics. When a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316933
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Fiskalpolitischer Aktivismus auf internationaler Ebene - kostspielig und ineffizient
Hirszowicz, Christine - Institut für Schweizerisches Bankwesen <Zürich> - 2001
Die Globalisierung zeigt sowohl positive als auch negative Ausiwirkungen auf die Steuersysteme. Positive Effekte ergeben sich aus dem Wirtschaftswachstum und manifestieren sich in der erweiterten Fiskalbasis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005857006
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Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model
Chang, Roberto; Velasco, Andres - 1998
We present a simple model that can account for the main features of recent financial crises in emerging markets. The … sufficient condition for financial crises to occur. Domestic financial liberalization and capital flows from abroad (especially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397417
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Trends in velocity and policy expectations
Gordon, David B.; Leeper, Eric M.; Zha, Tao - 1997
U.S. velocity of base money exhibits three distinct trends since 1950. After rising steadily for thirty years, it flattens out in the 1980s and falls substantially in the 1990s. This paper explores whether the observed secular movements in velocity can be accounted for exclusively by endogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397469
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The Asian liquidity crisis
Chang, Roberto; Velasco, Andres - 1998
for financial crises and/or exchange rate collapses (Chang and Velasco 1998a, b). In this paper we argue that the 1997 …-98 crises in Asia were in fact a consequence of international illiquidity. This follows from an analysis of empirical indicators … how financial crises became exchange rate collapses due to a government policy of both fixing exchange rates and acting as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397536
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On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market
Krause, Michael U.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2004
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers can engage in search while on the job. We show that on-the-job search is a key component in explaining labor market dynamics in models of equilibrium unemployment. The model predicts fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293492