We present a weekly structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of the US crude oil market. Exploiting weekly data we can explain short-run crude oil price dynamics, including those related with the COVID-19 pandemic and with the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The model is set identified with...

We assess the degree of connectedness among 16 metals that are critical for the production of clean energy technologies. These commodities are the constituents of the Energy Transition Metals (ETMs) price index maintained by the International Monetary Fund and comprise base, precious, and minor...

Putting a price on carbon - with taxes or developing carbon markets - is a widely used policy measure to achieve the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper tackles the issue of producing point, direction-of-change, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the...

We estimate the short-run effects of severe weather shocks on local economic activity and assess cross-border spillovers operating through economic linkages between U.S. states. We measure weather shocks using a detailed county-level database on emergency declarations triggered by natural...

This paper presents new results on the identification of heteroskedastic structural vector autoregressive (HSVAR) models. Point identification of HSVAR models fails when some shifts in the variances of the structural shocks are suspected to be statistically indistinguishable from each other....

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the global market for crude oil and oil futures risk premium at the aggregate level. It offers empirical evidence on whether the compensation for risk required by the speculators depends on the type of the structural shock of interest....

Recent studies on oil market demonstrate endogeneity of oil price by modeling it as a function of consumption and precautionary demands and producers’ supply. However, studies analysing the effect of oil price uncertainty on investment, do not disentangle uncertainties raised by underlying...

The aim of this paper is to investigate how major net oil exporter economies react to oil price shocks. We contribute to the literature by considering, at the same time, the possible nonlinearity and asymmetry of this relationship with respect to sign, size and causes of the oil price shocks, as...

We study the relationship between the risk of default and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors using Supervised Machine Learning (SML) techniques on a cross-section of European listed companies. Our proxy for credit risk is the z-score originally proposed by Altman (1968). We...

We develop a Bayesian Structural VAR (SVAR) model to study the relationship between different kinds of energy shocks and inflation dynamics in Europe. Specifically, we include in our specification two separate energy markets (oil and natural gas) and two target macroeconomic variables, measuring...