The goal of this paper is to provide up-to-date worldwide evidence on the short-term relationship between credit changes and output changes. Standard correlation methods, stateof-the-art panel Granger causality tests, and panel regressions were applied on a maximum sample of 144 countries over...

This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and exchange rate appreciations/depreciations and inflation by estimating nonlinear time series models. Motivated by theoretical and empirical results in the literature, the paper proposes new econometric models that can...

This paper analyzes the identifying power of weak convexity assumptions in treatment effect models with endogenous selection. The counterfactual distributions are constrained either in terms of the response function, or conditional on the realized treatment, and sharp bounds on the potential...

In this paper we investigate the long-run and short-run relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China using the quarterly province-level panel data for the period 1999 q1 to 2007 q4. Recently developed econometric techniques for panel unit root testing and heterogeneous...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

This paper examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth in case of Argentina's economy. Apply Granger causality and exogeneity tests based on VEC (vector error correction) models with monthly data covering the period 1993:1-2010:8. The results show that the...

Interpreting Granger causality as economic causality implies that the underlying VAR model is a structural economic model. However, this is wrong if simultaneity occurs. Magnitude and stability of possible errors are analysed in a simulation study. It is shown that economic misinterpretations of...

The financialization view is that increased trading in commodity futures markets is associated with increases in the growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased sharply and many commodity prices rose and became more...