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I provide conditions under which the trimmed FDQML estimator, advanced by McCloskey (2010) in the context of fully parametric short-memory models, can be used to estimate the long-memory stochastic volatility model parameters in the presence of additive low-frequency contamination in log-squared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420267
This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282854
,b,c) to examine the importance of jumps, and in particular large and small jumps, using high frequency price returns on 25 … stocks in the DOW 30 and S&P futures index. In particular, we examine jumps from both the perspective of their contribution … of jumps in around 22.8% of the days during the 1993-2000 period, and in 9.4% of the days during the 2001-2008 period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282828
variables. We then provide empirical evidence on small and large jumps from the perspective of their contribution to overall … and Diebold (2007) and Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a,b,c). Evidence of jumps is found in around 22.8% of the days during … role of jumps is lessening, the role of large jumps has not decreased, and indeed, the relative role of large jumps, as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282858
asset management are predicated on the importance of jumps, or discontinuous movements in asset returns. In light of this, a … number of recent papers have addressed volatility predictability, some from the perspective of the usefulness of jumps in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334248
Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates vs. term premia? And does it matter for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012670880
The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper is the first to examine the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277261
In this paper, we extend the standard Gaussian stochastic-volatility Bayesian VAR by employing the generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t distribution for the innovations. Allowing the skewness parameter to vary over time, our specification permits flexible modelling of innovations in terms of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015130168
In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014551600
In this paper we assess whether the relation between the corporate bond-yield spread and the real economy has been stable over time. Using quarterly US data from 1953Q1 to 2018Q2, we estimate Bayesian VAR models which allow for drifting parameters and/or stochastic volatility and conduct formal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654449