is larger, even when inflation is partly backward-looking. …

This paper introduces a new estimate of core inflation. Core inflation is a real time estimate of monetary inflation …. Most existing core inflation estimate do not account for persistent relative price changes and are therefore likely to be … poor estimates of the underlying monetary inflation rate. The proposed core inflation estimate estimates core inflation by …

Using frequency domain techniques to separate short and long run dynamics and decomposing inflation into its common and … idiosyncratic components, we study the regime dependence of the inflation-RPV relation in Argentina and the USA. Under High … inflation, strong long-run comovement between RPV and Inflation is found for both economies, that extends to the short run …

labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation …The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of …, raising inflation by around 1 percentage point during most of 2021. …

This paper shows that in ation in industrialized countries is largely a global phenomenon. First, the inflation rates … variance share that is associated with Global Inflation is not only due to the trend components of inflation (up from 1960 to … comovement of inflation comes largely from common shocks. Global Inflation is a function of real developments at short horizons …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …

investigate the inflation expectations and uncertainties of firms. We document that, in the aggregate, firm inflation expectations … are very similar to the predictions of professional forecasters for national inflation statistics, despite a somewhat … inflation expectations bear little in common with the "prices in general" expectations reported by households. Next we show that …

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international … empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its … potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …