Showing 1 - 10 of 329
This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397673
frequency information. We compare this model with two versions of the mixed frequency VAR, which so far had been only applied to … implement a simulation study to evaluate the relative forecasting ability of the alternative models in finite samples. Finally …, we conduct several empirical applications to assess the relevance of quarterly survey data for forecasting a set of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143869
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …). MF-BVARs are shown to provide an attractive alternative to surveys of professional forecasters for forecasting GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776834
In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143776
autoregressive component. First, we compare the forecasting performance of the different MIDAS models in Monte Carlo simulation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143848
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310799
results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012109773
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661568
This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776815
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011785343