Showing 1 - 10 of 919
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth," describing the … permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281025
Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263217
This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807665
The objective of this paper is to provide an optimizing model of wage and price setting consistent with U.S. data. The paper first investigates the predictions of an optimizing labor supply model for the aggregate nominal wage, taking as given the evolution of prices and quantities. In this part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318359
inflation. Taking as given the paths of nominal labor compensation and labor productivity to approximate the evolution of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318369
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the Unites States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960- 2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285786
This paper analyses the relation between US inflation and unemployment from the perspective of "frictional growth," a … has not only persistent, but permanent real effects, giving rise to a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. We … the US unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281030
chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation-unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280760
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293481