Showing 1 - 10 of 1,082
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293481
chain reactions, and provides new evidence on the long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the US. It is argued that … inflation/unemployment responses to money growth shocks. SVAR (structural vector autoregression) and GMM (generalised method of … and real sides of the economy are symbiotic. In the light of the significant and robust long-run inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010280760
In this paper we evaluate the relative influence of external versus domestic inflation drivers in the 12 new European … well supported in the new EU member states. We also find that the inflation process is dominated by domestic variables in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294894
business cycle. Second, a shock that moves the land price is capable of generating large volatility in unemployment. Our … estimation indicates that a 10 percent drop in the land price leads to a 0.34 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010397671
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where workers can engage in search while on the job. We show that on-the-job search is a key component in explaining labor market dynamics in models of equilibrium unemployment. The model predicts fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293492
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500207
This paper analyses the relation between US inflation and unemployment from the perspective of "frictional growth," a … has not only persistent, but permanent real effects, giving rise to a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. We … the US unemployment and inflation trajectories during the nineties. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281030
We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011430077