(GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting …Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of …-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …

the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My …

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark …Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in … empirical expectations data instead assuming all agents' expectations are rational This paper takes up the challenge of modeling …

current market earnings expectations. These findings indicate that firms expecting better earnings performance are more … expected change in earnings, our study investigates how firms manage their earnings forecast strategy once they have decided to … to adopt a multiple earnings forecast (a portfolio) approach in the statutory sanctions period, particularly for the …

focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy … performance. We use a unique survey with the feature of including matched policy rate and fixed-horizon inflation expectations at …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation … increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation …

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international … not statistically significant. Finally, estimated models are pooled to forecast inflation. Some of the forecast … empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its …