I jointly use daily data on deaths and public transportation ridership in San Francisco in 1918-19 to estimate a model in which agents choose their level of economic activity based on perceived infection risk, modeled as a function of current and lagged infections or deaths. Agents' choices in...

This article develops a theoretical model for evaluating mandatory activation of welfare recipients in complex activation programmes. The model aims to summarize and describe heterogeneous content that is difficult to comprehend because of local variations, staff characteristics, or other...

An estimand of interest in empirical studies with observational data is the average treatment effect of a multi-valued treatment in the treated subpopulation. We demonstrate three estimation approaches: outcome regression, inverse probability weighting and inverse probability weighted...

Using causal graphs, this paper develops a simple check to uncover the direction of the causal link between economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility. The check is applied to monthly data for 22 countries. The results imply that uncertainty is an instantaneous cause of stock market...

Evaluation studies aim to provide answers to important questions like: How does this program or policy intervention affect the outcome variables of interest? In order to answer such questions, using the traditional statistical evaluation (or causal inference) methods, some conditions must be...

This work evaluates the impact of an abortion reform in Uruguay allowing free interruption of pregnancy until 12 weeks of gestation on the quantity and quality of births in the short run. We employ a differences-in-differences approach, a comprehensive administrative register of births and a...

We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same...

Swedish elementary school children stopped receiving written end of year report cards following a grading reform in 1982. Gradual implementation of the reform creates an opportunity to investigate the effects of being graded on adult educational attainments and earnings for children in the...

We study the effect of child care costs on the fertility behavior of Swedish women and find that reductions in child care charges influence fertility decisions, even when costs are initially highly subsidized. Exploiting the exogenous variation in child care costs caused by a Swedish child care...

This paper re-examines inference for cluster samples. Sensitivity analysis is proposed as a new method to perform inference when the number of groups is small. Based on estimations using disaggregated data, the sensitivity of the standard errors with respect to the variance of the cluster...