This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … economic outlook rather than with the response to an exogenous shock; (iv) the few notable instances of the latter response are … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. Our … synchronized shifts in shock variances across two regimes and the fit does not rely on strong nominal rigidities. We find little … evidence of changes in the inflation target. We identify three types of shocks that account for most of macroeconomic …

business cycle. Second, a shock that moves the land price is capable of generating large volatility in unemployment. Our … estimation indicates that a 10 percent drop in the land price leads to a 0.34 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate …

intuitively appealing explanation, based on regime switching in the real interest rate and learning, of why tests based on the …

estimates to values for which the equilibrium is unique. We show how the likelihood-based estimation of dynamic stochastic … that before 1979 non-fundamental sunspot shocks may have contributed significantly to inflation and interest rate …

preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years. …

preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years. …