This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … economic outlook rather than with the response to an exogenous shock; (iv) the few notable instances of the latter response are … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

within a unified framework that incorporates regime switching both in shock variances and in the inflation target. Our … synchronized shifts in shock variances across two regimes and the fit does not rely on strong nominal rigidities. We find little … evidence of changes in the inflation target. We identify three types of shocks that account for most of macroeconomic …

inflation as one component of future real wages. This paper scrutinizes whether countries in CEE that officially announce an … inflation target are tempted to act time-inconsistently and switch from the announced inflation target to an exchange rate … target in order to sustain higher output via surprise inflation. If market participants discover the time-inconsistency, they …

find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock leads to a persistent fall in international output, a drop in global … inflation rates, a rise in international interest rates and a strengthening of the US dollar in real terms. There is … negative shock to foreign real GDP growth. …

variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are … macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while …

confidence shocks as the main transmission channels. Moreover the risk premium shock contributed significantly to the downturn of …