Arbetstagarorganisationernas förväntningar på lönetillväxten ligger systematiskt högre än arbetsgivarorganisationernas i den så kallade Prospera-enkäten. I denna artikel analyseras dessa skillnader ekonometriskt. Genom att beakta respondenternas förväntningar rörande inflation och...

In this paper, we evaluate households' directional forecasts of inflation and the unemployment rate in Sweden. The analysis is conducted using monthly forecasts from the National Institute of Economic Research's Economic Tendency Survey that range from January 1996 until August 2019. Results...

We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the...

This paper applies the recently developed maximum-likelihood-panel cointegration method of Larsson and Lyhagen (2007) to test the strong PPP hypothesis during the recent ‡oat period on data for the G7 countries. This method is robust in several important dimensions relative to previous methods,...

This paper contributes to the recent debate about the estimated high partial adjustment coefficient in dynamic Taylor rules, commonly interpreted as deliberate interest rate smoothing on the part of the monetary authority. We argue that a high coefficient on the lagged interest rate term may be...

This paper estimates the path of inflation persistence in the United States over the last 50 years and draws implications about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy preferences. Standard models of central bank optimization predict that the central bank's preference for output...

This paper investigates the econometric properties of the Taylor (1993) rule applied to U.S., Australian and Swedish data to judge its empirical relevance. Little attention has been paid to the time series properties of the data underlying interest rate rules, nor the estimations themselves,...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...

This paper investigates if conclusions regarding labour market hysteresis differ depending on whether employment or unemployment rates are studied. Applying a range of unit-root tests to monthly data from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Sweden, the U.K. and the U.S., we find results for...

Within a decision-making group, such as the monetary-policy committee of a central bank,group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each...