We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that arepoorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but havestrong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global fac-tors are jointly signicant predictors of bond returns, where...

We sort currencies into portfolios by countries' consumption growth over the past year. The excess return of the highest-consumption-growth currency portfolio over the portfolio of lowest-consumption-growth currencies is positive on average, compensating investors for large negative returns...

This paper investigates the validity of Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) in longdated fixed income securities. I show that common measures of CIP rely on trading strategies subject to rollover risk and credit risk, or fail to fully account for the trading costs. Hence, roundtrip CIP profit is...

This paper investigates price discovery in foreign exchange (FX) swaps. Using data on inter-dealer transactions, we find that a 1 standard deviation increase in order flow (i.e. net pressure to obtain USD through FX swaps) increases the cost of dollar funding by up to 4 basis points after the...

This paper studies the violation of the most basic no-arbitrage condition in international finance - Covered Interest Parity (CIP). We find that the CIP puzzle largely stems from funding liquidity differences, reflected in the marginal funding rates of the main arbitrageurs. With severe funding...

Long-term interest rates in a number of small-open inflation targeting economies co-move more strongly with US long-term rates than with short-term rates in those economies. We augment a standard small open-economy model with imperfectly substitutable government bonds and time-varying term...

We build a two-country model with imperfect financial intermediation. Banks face limits to arbitrage which lead to positive excess returns in the investment markets and a risk premium in the international credit market. Gross capital flows affect the exchange rate since banks are balance sheet...

In this paper a type of Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) (HJM) based affine model is derived theoretically. This type of affine model is obtained by applying Linear Realization Theory to construct Finite Dimensional Realizations (FDRs) of the Gaussian HJM model. The algorithms of constructing...

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...

This paper develops and estimates a Quadratic-Gaussian model of the U.S. term structure that can accommodate the rich dynamics of inflation risk premia over the 1983-2013 period by allowing for time-varying market prices of inflation risk and incorporating survey information on inflation...