The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman … filter procedure is applied to filter the future paths of CPI components, given projected headline inflation obtained by …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international … empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its … potential predictors has changed and inflation has become more unpredictable. Using a univariate model as a benchmark, we …

We study possible factors behind the subdued inflation in the United States since the mid-1990s. A standard …, consumer price inflation and producer price inflation shows an otherwise unexplained downward shift in CPI inflation since the … simulation of the wage-price spiral shows that the low level of U.S. inflation during the late 1990s stems from coincidental …

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost … growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation …. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that …

This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …

application forecasting US inflation, we find important discrepancies between individual predictor relevance according to the in …

Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models …