We analyze empirical links between the perceived tail-risk of inflation, the policy rate, longer-term interest rates … economic outlook rather than with the response to an exogenous shock; (iv) the few notable instances of the latter response are … always in reaction to Fed announcements; and, (v) our impulse responses demonstrate that odds of extreme inflation outcomes …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. …

gap coefficient is higher in the recessionary regime than in the normal one. The estimate of the inflation coefficient …

&R) approach and use annual forecasts of output growth and inflation to estimate monetary policy shocks. I complement the analysis …

's effect on fundamentals. The estimation results from a bivariate VAR-GARCH model suggest that the Fed does not respond to the …

monetary policy rule responding to inflation, the output gap, house prices and stock prices. We find some time variation in the … coefficients for house prices and stock prices but fairly stable coefficients over time for inflation and the output gap. Our …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …