This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...

We characterize full implementation of social choice sets in mixedstrategy Bayesian equilibrium. Our results concern both exact and virtual mixed implementation. For exact implementation, we identify a strengthening of Bayesian monotonicity, which we refer to as mixed Bayesian monotonicity. It...

Risk exchange is considered here as a cooperative game with transferable utility. The set-up fits markets for insurance, securities and contingent endowments. When convoluted payoff is concave at the aggregate endowment, there is a price-supported core solution. Under variance aversion the...

Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns strictly increase in an underlying characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, one needs to take the entire range of the characteristic into account, as is done in the recent proposal of Patton and Timmermann...

Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns should monotonically increase in a certain characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, one typically considers a finite number of return categories, ordered according to the underlying characteristic. A standard...

We develop a method that allows one to compute incomplete-market equilibria routinely forMarkovian equilibria (when they exist). The main difficulty to be overcome arises from the setof state variables. There are, of course, exogenous state variables driving the economy but, in anincomplete...

Potential growth - the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment - is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive...

Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and...

Across the world, a structural growth slowdown is underway: at current trends, the global potential growth rate - the maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflation - is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. The slowdown could be even more...