Showing 1 - 10 of 807
In this paper, a Bayesian approach is suggested to compare unit root models with stationary models when both the level and the error variance are subject to structural changes (known as breaks) of an unknown date. The paper utilizes analytic and Monte Carlo integration techniques for calculating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284115
The long memory characteristic of financial market volatility is well documentedand has important implications for … volatility forecasting and optionpricing. When fitted to the same data, different volatility models calculate theunconditional … variance differently and could have very different volatility persistentparameters. Hence, they produce very different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870000
In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov …-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high … volatility by uniformed traders result in a crash. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294846
The paper presents an empirical study of volatility spillover from oil prices to stock markets within an asymmetric … evidence of volatility spillover is found for all stock markets but the Swedish one, where only weak evidence is found. News … impact surfaces show that, although statistically significant, the volatility spillovers are quantitatively small. The stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321644
This paper examines persistence in the Ukrainian stock market during the recent financial crisis. Using two different long memory approaches (R/S analysis and fractional integration) we show that this market is inefficient and the degree of persistence is not the same in different stages of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046301
volatility is weakest in mainland China and a possible reason for this is that Chinese retail investors do not read (traditional … the stock market volatility is compared in both the Anglophone world and the Sinophone world. I find that the stock market … volatility and the number of publicly available global news stories are strongly linked to each other in both languages …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208708
In this paper we use a Bayesian approach to test for mean reversion in the Swedish stock market on monthly data 1918-1998. By simply account for the heteroscedasticty of the data with a two state hidden Markov model of normal distributions and taking estimation bias into account via Gibbs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208407
In this paper we test for mean reversion in the Nordic stock markets using monthly nominal data 1947-1998. By simply account for the heteroscedasticity of the data with a regime-switching model of normal distributions and taking estimation bias into account via a Bayesian approach we can find no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208422
This paper introduces a new non-parametric approach to integrate empirical probability functions of the real return for different investment horizons for five portfolios of Swedish stocks and bonds. In our setting the problem reduces to generating new generalizations from an empirical Markov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208423
We compare small-sample properties of Bayes estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of ARMA-GARCH models. Our Monte Carlo experiments indicate that in small sample, the Bayes estimator beats the MLE. We also develop a Bayes method of testing strict stationarity and ergodicity of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334349