cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation … dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more flexible, leading output and inflation to be more volatile, and bonds … to become more risky. The model matches well the relation between the level of inflation and a number of salient macro …

Recently a market in options based on CPI inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses … quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these pdfs respond to news … empirical pricing kernels. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …

This study analyses India's inflation using the Phillips curve theory. To estimate an open-economy Phillips curve, we … need three variables: (1) inflation (2) the output gap and (3) the real effective exchange rate. In India, the incorrect … composite consumer price index (CCPI) was the best measure of inflation, and should be used to construct the real effective …