model we compare it with forecasts generated from time series models at different forecast horizons. As state …-of-the-art time series models used in inflation forecasting we employ a Bayesian VAR, a traditional VAR and a simple autoregressive … models for longer forecast horizons (more than 3 months) while they are outperformed by the time series models only for the …

autoregressive model with time-varying transition probabilities that depend on the state of the economy. We propose new …

average treatment effects, based on forecasting counterfactuals using a short time series of pre-treatment data. We show that … time trends) regressions deliver unbiasedness under a broad class of data-generating processes for the individual …

future. The sequence of individual forecasts, one period at a time, is called a path forecast, where the term path refers to …