We analyze unique data on three sources of information on the probability of re-employment within 6 months (RE6), for the same individuals sampled from the inflow into unemployment. First, they were asked for their perceived probability of RE6. Second, their caseworkers revealed whether they...

We report that the price of a 6.5oz Coke was 5¢ from 1886 until 1959. Thus, we are documenting a nominal price rigidity that lasted more than 70 years! The case of Coca-Cola is particularly interesting because during the 70-year period there were substantial changes in the soft drink industry...

This Working Paper examines India's growth and employment generation performance over the last ten years in the context of key indicators such as fiscal and current account balances and inflation and suggests priorities for macroeconomic reforms. An improvement in the central Government's...

We provide an early assessment of the Juncker Commission's contributions to the ongoing reform of the euro area. In doing so, we present a chronological summary of the reform process up to 2014. At the time, the euro area architecture had undergone many changes. These were mainly focused on risk...

The paper's objective is to examine whether the Indian Rupee was fairly valued as of end March 2015. First, the movements of the trade weighted real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Rupee are tracked over the last ten years. Next, the underpinnings of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect,...

In simple textbook treatment of bilateral exchange traders end up on the contract curve such that the trading surplus is maximized regardless of any asymmetric bargaining power they might have. However, that need not be true when the terms of exchange are determined by uncooperative bargaining,...

We use the geometric representation of factor models to represent the factor loading structure by sets corresponding to unit-specific non-zero loadings. We formulate global and local identification conditions based on set conditions. We propose two algorithms to efficiently evaluate Sato...

We use the geometric representation of factor models to represent the factor loading structure by sets corresponding to unit-specific non-zero loadings. We formulate global and local, rotational identification conditions based on set conditions. We propose two algorithms to efficiently evaluate...

This paper studies the properties of the sieve bootstrap for a class of linear processes which exhibit strong dependence. The sieve bootstrap scheme is based on residual resampling from autoregressive approximations the order of which increases slowly with the sample size. The first-order...

This paper examines the rise of the VAR approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises as a systematic solution to the issue of 'model choice' bypassed by Cowles Commission (CC) researchers, and that the approach essentially inherits and enhances the CC legacy...