To evaluate measures of expectations I examine and compare some of the most common methods for capturing expectations: the futures method which utilizes financial market prices, the VAR forecast method, and the survey method. I study average expectations on the Federal funds rate target, and the...

Economic theory predicts a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate, but previous empirical studies (mostly based on the older stock adjustment model) have found little evidence of such a relationship. We derive parametric tests for the role of the interest rate in...

This paper analyses macroeconomic aspects of exit from aid-dependence. By 'exit from aid', we mean substantial and enduring decline over time in Official Development Assistance (ODA) as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The relevant macroeconomic variables are identified by systematically...

There are two stylised facts, namely weak demand for life-annuities and flat age-wealth profile that contradict the life-cycle hypothesis. In this paper we design a theoretical framework, which combines plausible arguments, which have been put forward in the literature to reconcile theory with...