The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed under the Biden administration in August 2022, is the biggest US climate bill to date. Its focus on subsidy-driven decarbonization incentives marks a potential turning point in US industrial policy and might prevent its repeal under the upcoming Trump...

Increasing the realism with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society since actors, decision-making, and institutions are the defining elements of transition pathways. In...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

The transition to a cleaner energy mix, essential for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, will significantly increase demand for metals critical to renewable energy technologies. Energy Transition Metals (ETMs), including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements,...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilitiesand correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive definiteness of the conditional...

We propose two alternative models to estimate fundamental prices on real estate markets. Both models state that the fundamental price is the sum of the discounted future period costs that arise from owning a house. The first model is based on a no-arbitrage condition between renting and buying a...

In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...