This paper proposes an empirical method for estimating a long-run trend for the unemployment rate that is grounded in … the modern theory of unemployment. I write down an unobserved components model and identify the cyclical and trend … components of the underlying unemployment flows, which in turn imply a time varying estimate of the unemployment trend, the …

-the-job search is a key component in explaining labor market dynamics in models of equilibrium unemployment. The model predicts … fluctuations of unemployment, vacancies, and labor productivity whose relative magnitudes replicate the data. A standard search and … firms?incentives to post new jobs. Labor market tightness as measured by the vacancy-unemployment ratio is as volatile as in …

This study evaluates the long-term cost of unemployment in Finland by focusing on the deep recession period of the … early 1990s. The number of plant closures increased sharply during the recession and the unemployment rate rose by more than … 13 percentage points. In the analysis, prime working-age men who face unemployment due to plant closure are matched to …

unemployment has a weak positive effect on the probability of filling a vacancy, while the number of vacancies in the local labor …

By international standards, unemployment in Sweden remained remarkably low throughout the 1970s and the 1980s. In the … early 1990s, however, the unemployment rate skyrocketed and hit double-digit levels. Unemployment remained high for several … the rise and fall of unemployment. It is argued that the steep rise in unemployment was mainly the result of a series of …

unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches - the more reduced … unemployment flows are useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that considers unemployment inflow …. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when the unemployment rate is away from the longer …