We propose a class of new robust GMM tests for endogenous structural breaks. The tests are based on supremum and average statistics derived from robust GMM estimators with a bounded influence function. They imply a bounded linearized asymptotic bias of size and power under local model...

This short paper proposes a non-parametric method of accounting for the distribution of background characteristics when testing for segregation in empirical studies. It is shown and exemplified - using data on workplace segregation between immigrants and natives in Sweden - how the method can be...

We consider time series forecasting in the presence of ongoing structural change where both the time series dependence and the nature of the structural change are unknown. Methods that downweight older data, such as rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially...

DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these...

It is well understood that classical sample selection models are not semiparametrically identified without exclusion restrictions. Lee (2009) developed bounds for the parameters in a model that nests the semiparametric sample selection model. These bounds can be wide. In this paper, we...

The bootstrap is a convenient tool for calculating standard errors of the parameter estimates of complicated econometric models. Unfortunately, the bootstrap can be very time-consuming. In a recent paper, Honoré and Hu (2017), we propose a "Poor (Wo)man's Bootstrap" based on one-dimensional...

We use financial intraday data to identify monetary policy surprises in the euro area. We find that monetary policy statements and press conferences after European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meetings convey information that moves the yield curve far out. Moreover, the nature of the...

In 2015, an estimated 429,000 deaths and 212 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposure such as temperature and precipitation makes malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global...

This paper uses the Italian income tax treatment of 2006/7 as a quasi-natural tax experiment to offer some fresh empirical evidence on how labour supply responds to exogenous income tax hikes. We adopt the identification strategy based on TWFE panel data Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to...

The bootstrap is a convenient tool for calculating standard errors of the parameters of complicated econometric models. Unfortunately, the fact that these models are complicated often makes the bootstrap extremely slow or even practically infeasible. This paper proposes an alternative to the...