Showing 1 - 10 of 1,187
to the collapse in world trade and sharp drop in commodity prices. Things were made worse by emerging markets' exposure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281707
equity capital to the risk-free interest rate. When equity capital falls, bankruptcy risks rise. Firms become more vulnerable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335985
In this paper, we study the interplay between sovereign risk and global financial risk. We show that a substantial … portion of the comovement among sovereign spreads is accounted for by changes in global financial risk. We construct bond … measure global financial risk. Through panel regressions and local projection analysis, we find that an increase in global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012819004
Explanations of why changes in the relative quantities of safe debt seem to affect asset prices often appeal informally to a portfolio balance mechanism. I show how this type of effect can be incorporated in a general class of structural, arbitrage-free asset-pricing models using a numerical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352163
We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014581904
We present a theory in which limited risk sharing of idiosyncratic labor income risk plays a key role in determining … the dynamics of interest rates. Our production-based model relates the crosssectional distribution of labor income risk to … observable aggregate labor market variables. Our model makes two key predictions. First, it predicts positive risk premia for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012653486
basis points in the current federal funds rate at normal times. However, during a crisis period with risk aversion being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278183
As the debt ceiling episode unfolds, we highlight a sharp increase in activity across the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market and infer the likelihood of a U.S. default from these market prices. Beginning in January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading activity and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480354
In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776813
dynamics of inflation risk premia over the 1983-2013 period by allowing for time-varying market prices of inflation risk and … ten-year yield suggests a decline in the estimated inflation risk premium of 1.7 percentage points from the early 1980s to … recovery, in 2010-2012. The model's ability to generate sensible estimates of the inflation risk premium has important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011776851