This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the rational expectations benchmark … empirical household expectations data and shows that a simple standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of … demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate …

In recent years the world's two largest inflation-targeting central banks - the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the …, both revisions quickly became antiquated when inflation started to rise again in the wake of the pandemic. The change in … macroeconomic context (from stubbornly low inflation to persistent higher inflation) led both central banks to advocate 'policy …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …

's Research Department prior to the Board meetings Using Greenbook forecasts allows calculation of future inflation shocks as …

NAIRU stands for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It is beyond dispute that this acronym is an ugly … aggregate demand more generally, push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run. Once this short …-run tradeoff is admitted, there must be some level of unemployment consistent with stable inflation. The second issue is why the …