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Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293441
the Riksbank has anchored inflation expectations at the 2 percent inflation target, and second, that the original version … of the Phillips curve, based constant inflation expectations, is appropriate to calculate the unemployment effects of … every year 1997-2011 misleading. We also show that the inflation targeting of the Riksbank 1995-2014 is successful compared …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208696
Do inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions … expected and realized inflation. Our main insight is that US households form their expectations of inflation differently when … and supply shocks can explain a large proportion of expected and realized inflation dynamics during multiple periods of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661559
This paper focuses on the formation of inflation expectations of consumers in 9 Central, Eastern and Southeastern … difference between realized inflation and reported inflation expectations is considerably higher in CESEE countries than in 7 … literature on large Western economies: older, female and lower income respondents have relatively higher inflation expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014374750
This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293489
Existing empirical evidence suggest that entrepreneurs are optimists, a finding researchers often interpret as evidence of a behavioral bias in entrepreneurial decision-making. We revisit this claim by analyzing an unusually large survey dataset (180,814 responses) that allows us to create a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208671
This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060221
This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy … environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we … present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the inflation expectations associated with evolving macroeconomic and policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628450
The positive relationship between real exchange rates and natural resource income is well understood and studied. However, climate change and the transition to a lower-carbon economy now challenges this relationship. We document this by proposing a novel news media-based measure of climate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661572
of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143942