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Consumption and Population Age Structure
Erlandsen, Solveig K.; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2004
experiments show that the numerical effect on the savings rate of age structure changes is substantial when the indirect effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143636
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Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches
Comunale, Mariarosaria; Eller, Markus; Lahnsteiner, Mathias - 2020
Relying on a rich panel regression framework, we study the role of different "fundamental" credit determinants in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) EU Member States and compare actual private sector credit-to-GDP ratios to the derived fundamental levels. It turns out that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370146
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Remittances, migrants' education and immigration policy: Theory and evidence from bilateral data
Docquier, Frédéric; Rapoport, Hillel; Salomone, Sara - 2011
We investigate the relationship between remittances and migrants' education both theoretically and empirically, using … original bilateral remittance data. At a theoretical level we lay out a model of remittances interacting migrants' human … between remittances and migrants' education is ambiguous and depends on the immigration policy conducted at destination. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336074
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Adaptive models and heavy tails
Delle Monache, Davide; Petrella, Ivan - 2014
This paper proposes a novel and flexible framework to estimate autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. Our setup nests various adaptive algorithms that are commonly used in the macroeconometric literature, such as learning-expectations and forgetting-factor algorithms. These are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380995
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A dynamical systems approach to modeling human development
Ranganathan, Shyam; Swain, Ranjula Bali; Sumpter, David … - 2014
A key aim of economics is to set goals and investigate the relationship between various socio-economic indicators. By fitting time series data using a Bayesian dynamical systems approach we identify non-linear interactions between GDP, child mortality, fertility rate and female education. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396729
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Analysing mechanisms for meeting global emissions target: A dynamical systems approach
Ranganathan, Shyam; Swain, Ranjula Bali - 2014
Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396730
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Asymptotic Inference in the Lee-Carter Model for Modelling Mortality Rates
Reese, Simon - 2015
The most popular approach to modelling and forecasting mortality rates is the model of Lee and Carter (Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659–671, 1992). The popularity of the model rests mainly on its good fit to the data, its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208725
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Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?
Gülşen, Eda; Kara, Hakan - 2020
This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628450
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An Embarrassment of Riches: Forecasting Using Large Panels
Eklund, Jana; Karlsson, Sune - 2007
The increasing availability of data and potential predictor variables poses new challenges to forecasters. The task of formulating a single forecasting model that can extract all the relevant information is becoming increasingly difficult in the face of this abundance of data. The two leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012654322
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Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed frequency data: Forecasting US output growth
Clements, Michael P.; Galvão, Ana Beatriz; … - 2007
Many macroeconomic series such as US real output growth are sampled quarterly, although potentially useful predictors are often observed at a higher frequency. We look at whether a mixed data-frequency sampling (MIDAS) approach can improve forecasts of output growth. The MIDAS approach is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284142