increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation … Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation …

Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … models for forecasting, and helps to explain previous findings of the failure of VEC models to forecast better than VAR …

(GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting …Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of …-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …

. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for … inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques …We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated …

inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a … predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative … indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. At the longer forecast horizons, multivariate …

This paper provides a review which focuses on forecasting using statistical/econometric methods designed for dealing …

forecast combinations, which are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, and compares these with a lesser known alternative ….S. macroeconomic and financial data to forecast, for the United States, CPI inflation, core CPI inflation, industrial production …. We also argue that forecast combinations can be interpreted as a restricted form of partial least squares regression …

across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key … results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast …

, Ethiopia. We find that the program increased public employment and reduced private labor supply among beneficiaries and …