Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … models for forecasting, and helps to explain previous findings of the failure of VEC models to forecast better than VAR …

across all variables and forecast horizons, the two-sector model provides a far better fit to the data. Some other key … results are first, that Hicks-neutral shocks explain a greater share of output and consumption variation at shorter-forecast …

expected change in earnings, our study investigates how firms manage their earnings forecast strategy once they have decided to … to adopt a multiple earnings forecast (a portfolio) approach in the statutory sanctions period, particularly for the … conservative in their earnings forecasting compared to those expecting worse earnings performance. Although this asymmetrical …

increases. Second, the disaggregated ARIMA model has the smallest forecasting errors. Third, majority of the forecast evaluation … Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for short-term forecasting of inflation - Autoregressive integrated moving average models … models' out-of-sample forecasting performance for the period 2012 q3 to 2016 q2 by using a number of forecast evaluation …

Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate … this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR (BVAR), using a panel of 33 exchange rates vis … forecasting. In addition, we adopt a driftless random walk prior, so that cross-dynamics matter for forecasting only if there is …

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the … forecasting performance of our proposed model relative to most of the existing alternative specifications. While most of the … existing evidence focuses on statistical measures of forecast accuracy, we also evaluate the performance of the alternative …

(GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting …Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of …-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and usable for policy analysis under different …

. Furthermore, when comparing the whole forecasting period; model combination outperforms Norges Banks own point forecast for … inflation at the forecast horizon up to a year. By using a suite of models we allow for a greater range of modelling techniques …We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. Forecasts are recursively evaluated …

inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a … predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative … indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. At the longer forecast horizons, multivariate …