How do real-time expectations affect firms' economic decisions? We provide evidence by using a dataset on Japanese multinational firms' sales forecasts and exploring an unexpected escalation of a territorial dispute between China and Japan in 2012. Our estimation substantiates that, after the...

Can a temporary negative shock generate long-lasting effects on economic activities? To show causal evidence, we utilize data from Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) and explore the economic impact of the unexpected escalation of an island dispute between China and Japan in 2012. Our...

Access to external finance is a major obstacle for small and young firms; thus, providing subsidized credit to small and young firms is a widely-used policy option across countries. We study the impact of such targeted policies on aggregate output and productivity and highlight indirect general...

Government policies that attempt to alleviate credit constraints faced by small and young firms are widely adopted across countries. We study the aggregate impact of such targeted credit subsidies in a heterogeneous firm model with collateral constraints and endogenous entry and exit. A defining...

Uncertainty faced by individual firms appears to be heterogeneous. In this paper, I construct new empirical measures of firm-level uncertainty using data from the I/B/E/S and Compustat. These new measures reveal persistent differences in the degree of uncertainty facing individual firms not...